Opinion
OPINION: Is Nigeria On The Brink Of Another Civil War?
By Fisayo Soyombo
On August 1, 1966, after the collapse of last-ditch attempts by Nigeria’s power brokers to prevent the impending Civil War, Lieutenant-Colonel Odumegwu Ojukwu, the man who would later declare Biafra a secessionist state, said only one thing would make the rebels cease fire: “that the Republic of Nigeria be split into its component parts; and all southerners in the North be repatriated to the South and that northerners resident in the South be repatriated to the North”.
Of course, Ojukwu and the rebelling easterners didn’t get their wish. On May 30, 1967, Oxford-educated Ojukwu declared Biafra an independent state in the southeast of the country. And on July 6, 1967, civil war broke out in Nigeria, claiming more than a million lives in just three years.
Fast-forward to June 2017. Irked by renewed secessionist calls from the same Igbo ethnic group, a coalition of northern groups served a notice for “all Igbo currently residing in any part of Northern Nigeria to relocate within three months and all northerners residing in the East are advised likewise”.
Although made 51 years apart, those two statements are strikingly similar. Since the first was made during a war, there is real reason to worry that the second could prompt another. Last week’s commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Civil War offered a platform for Nigerians to review the ills of war but instead, the voices of secession raged even louder.
Secessionist movement an indictment of past leadership
The resurrection of the clamour for secession five decades from the war is simply the result of serial leadership failure. When the war ended in 1970, Yakubu Gowon, then Head of State, promised to “build a nation, great in justice, fair trade, and industry”. But he and his successors didn’t.
Although there is no evidence of efforts to specifically ignore the Igbo, generations of corrupt and selfish leaders have entered and vacated office with no painstaking plan to rebuild the East from the ruins of war (same for insurgency-ravaged North-East), instead filling their pockets with public funds while ignoring a disenchanted youth population.
Now, the Igbo percentage of that population will do anything to actualise Biafra, including sacrificing their lives, as already demonstrated by more than 150 of them between August 2015 and August 2016. The series of military crackdowns on pro-Biafra agitators is another grave error by the authorities; it has spawned clusters of bellicose Igbo youth who want to avenge their brothers’ deaths. Anyone who has physically met Nnamdi Kanu’s apostles, or read their viperous online comments, will admit that quite a number of them are seething with rage that can only be thawed by the highest level of tact from the government.
The absence of that kind of tact is arguably the reason for the escalation of the Biafra agitation in the last two years. After all, Kanu, the face of the agitation, was little-known until October 2015 when the Muhammadu Buhari government arrested him, and subsequently disobeyed court orders granting him bail. That unconditional detention meant Kanu exchanged his freedom for underserving martyrdom; now, what should have been an intelligent agitation for secession has been entrusted to a man whose message is primarily driven by emotion and aggression.
Nigeria’s unity is non-negotiable? No
Buhari has said it a few times, and his Vice — now Acting President — has reiterated it: Nigeria’s unity is not negotiable. This is not the way to go.
The superficial argument is that the Nigerian Constitution is unequivocal in its exclusion of secession when it states in Section 2(1): Nigeria is one indivisible and indissoluble sovereign state to be known by the name of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
But Biafra is not a fresh secessionist move; it is a 50-year-old idea. And — regardless of the grave shortcomings of the current proponent — a 50-year-old movement cannot be dispelled with a wave of the hand or by locking up the proponent or brandishing the Constitution. The Nigerian government must work out a mathematical answer.
The Biafra question deserves a referendum
In its ninth section, the same Constitution provides for dialogue on the possibility of amending Nigeria’s indissolubility. But for this amendment to happen, not less than two-thirds majority of state and federal lawmakers must support the move. So, instead of saying an outright no to Biafra, Buhari and Osinbajo should remind the agitators of what they must do: lobby the legislature. Everyone knows the success rate is negligible, if not nil, but good luck to them if they succeed.
Importantly and urgently, Nigeria needs a referendum. There is palpable public frustration with a governance structure that allocates lion share of the country’s earnings to the federal government while leaving states to scramble for crumbs. A referendum on the preferred system of internal governance is crucial, even though recent calls for fiscal federalism have come from politicians who are more interested in cornering the nation’s wealth than redistributing it for common good.
Now is the time to take the decision to the public court. James Madison, the fourth President of the United States, may have popularly argued that direct democracy is the “tyranny of the majority”, but there’s no other option for a Nigerian state where the tyranny of the ruling minority is monumental.
Neither history nor currency is on the side of Biafra. Only two secessionist movements have ever succeeded in Africa: Eritrea from Ethiopia after 30 years of war, and South Sudan from Sudan in 2011 after 22 years of war — the latter still as war-torn as the pre-2011 Sudan. Herein lies the lesson for Biafra agitators: secession from Nigeria will not solve their ache unless accompanied by conscientious leadership.
Nigeria, meanwhile, must go back 50 years to draw its own lessons: wars build from agitations like this. If the south-easterners don’t want to stay, let them go. Fragmentation is a million times better than the devastation of war.
Soyombo is Editor of the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR). This piece was first published by Al Jazeera
Op–ed pieces and contributions are the opinions of the writers only and do not represent the opinions of Oriental Times
Andy Victor
July 16, 2017 at 7:22 pm
Nign has already died in silent which making no impact so if it is at war all those lifes had been lost maybe its could ve make different cos without sacrifice this useless govt’ll nt knw the pains
Abdulaziz Mohammed
July 16, 2017 at 7:21 pm
kuje prison is waitin
Uzoewulu Okey
July 16, 2017 at 7:06 pm
Referrendum or?!
Paul Jumbo
July 16, 2017 at 6:58 pm
We don’t need War,all we ar asking for is a refrendum to decide our on our freedom.freedom doesn’t mean war
Abubakar Garba Hamza
July 16, 2017 at 6:53 pm
No, there is no any indication at all, Nigerians are love peace people
Uzoewulu Okey
July 16, 2017 at 7:04 pm
You are funny,itz biafra or death if u can anyway,be in ur nigeria please!
Aliyu Naibi Miringa
July 16, 2017 at 6:50 pm
History will repeat itself, but you already know the tribe that will suffer most…..
Unanka Henry
July 16, 2017 at 6:46 pm
Stop asking this irrational question!
Mazi Noble Izuakolam Chinyere
July 16, 2017 at 9:56 am
A call for freedom is not a call for war… Unity is not by force. A forced unity is slavery
July James
July 16, 2017 at 9:00 am
We are at war already
Jonathan Obiaeli
July 16, 2017 at 8:00 am
Haha
Victor Ume
July 16, 2017 at 7:33 am
Lack of education is a sin
Ani Emmyache
July 15, 2017 at 11:43 pm
Referendum is not war, all HAIL BIAFRA it’s our BIRTH right! United we stand!!
Gabriel Uzoma
July 15, 2017 at 9:56 pm
referendum is not war, it is they people’s decision
Paul Majah
July 15, 2017 at 9:24 pm
Who cares
Yacub Salih
July 15, 2017 at 9:08 pm
Never again! They don’t know what war is
Ejike Eze
July 15, 2017 at 8:57 pm
Prince Ike
July 15, 2017 at 8:54 pm
I Can Hear Many Saying God Forbid, But The People Have To Forbid It By Giving The Agitatorz A Referandum , And There Will Be No War, But If U Refuse It Is No Longer In The Hand Of God, Because U Have All The Chance To Prevent The War Now!
Gideon Nelson Sabo
July 15, 2017 at 8:09 pm
Foolish n stupid questions.
Emmanuel Ubachunwa
July 15, 2017 at 7:56 pm
IS REFERENDUM WAR . IT ONLY FOR PROPER UNDERSTANDING .OR BASICALLY FREEDOM
Brightel Nkume
July 15, 2017 at 7:33 pm
Even if we fight no problem we abound on the shadow of the lord nothing go do us.
Chiukwunonye Ani
July 15, 2017 at 7:20 pm
Yes it is
Oladotun Fadoju
July 15, 2017 at 7:19 pm
GOD FORBID, LAILAI A O NI ROGUN MO NILE YI……
Isa Usman
July 15, 2017 at 7:11 pm
Allah protect us from war
Godspower Alfred
July 15, 2017 at 9:33 pm
Allah wil never protect u unless u giv us biafra dat is de only tin dat wil save u monkeys in de zoo
Olabisi Rotimi
July 15, 2017 at 6:41 pm
Fani Kayode u a on ur own.
Chukwuebuka Chukwuebuka
July 15, 2017 at 6:30 pm
Who want war
Imafidon Michael
July 15, 2017 at 6:21 pm
Ask your father
Kelvin Orite Ikiogha
July 15, 2017 at 6:16 pm
if it I’d war let it come but those arewa parasites will get a fire power that will consume them
Onyeka Okafor
July 15, 2017 at 6:09 pm
U cant beat a child and tel him or her not to cry, WAR does no one good. Bt since arewa youth are mistaken REFERENDUM to War, prof Ango should enlighten them a bit
Chidi De Virgynus Ezeh
July 15, 2017 at 6:08 pm
Typing…….
Itodo Chibuike
July 15, 2017 at 6:03 pm
Special announcement
Those who think that they will ignite war and run away, its a very big lie from hell
Those who kill by the sword must die by the sword
KasarachiDavid David
July 15, 2017 at 6:00 pm
freedom is what we want
Godsown Emeka
July 15, 2017 at 5:59 pm
Noooo just peaceful good bye
Samuel Adanogu
July 15, 2017 at 5:58 pm
no
Charlie Achomrough
July 15, 2017 at 5:55 pm
Nigeria is currently in a military war.boko haram have been killing people. Which war are talking again? ok the fulani herdsmen war?
Alexander Alex Junior Uzoma
July 15, 2017 at 5:47 pm
If is war let be
Stephen Amusi
July 15, 2017 at 5:45 pm
Na them sabi
Frank Frank
July 15, 2017 at 5:40 pm
Why civil war? What’s going to cause war?
Ikechukwu Liberty Eze
July 15, 2017 at 5:31 pm
YES, am seeing war around the corner coming from hausa fulani/some yoruba’s they do not understand the word ‘self determination’ and ‘referendum’. what Biafrans seek and ask for is our freedom get it in your head, we do not ask for war just let us go. #SupportReferendum4Biafra
Chidi Okafor
July 15, 2017 at 5:30 pm
na dem sabi
Nwaokolo Nwaokolo Ifeanyi
July 15, 2017 at 5:21 pm
We ask for referendum and they give us war but if war is what they can give us in return, we defend ourself.
Engr Uba Uchechukwu Ferdinand
July 15, 2017 at 5:20 pm
If referendum means war to arewa animals then let them get ready
Sunny Okonofua
July 15, 2017 at 5:18 pm
No
Divine Success Peter
July 15, 2017 at 5:14 pm
No, but if they fight us again, we Biafrans will defend ourselves. All we ask for is referendum
Uchechukwu Ezihe
July 15, 2017 at 5:12 pm
yes I’m not happy seeing the first war
Sadiq Ibrahim Sadiq
July 15, 2017 at 5:11 pm
We don’t need it again
JaydeLz Ikemefuna
July 15, 2017 at 5:08 pm
WHEN WARSAW SAW WAR, WARSAW WAS NO MORE!
All of you that are wishing for war are evil and wicked!
And may God bring war to u all persönally.
War isnt the solution, Referandum is the only way.. Even if u can be able to fight the so called, think about the innocent kids, old ones and the disabled ones
you think war is sitting down in ur house and typing rubbish?..
War is ugly!
War is bad!
I asked an old biafran soldier abt his experience in the civil war, he shook his head and told me dat war is an enemy of mankind, it only come to destroy and perish the innocent, it brings starvation and famine..
I have watch documentaries of war and its so gory..
In war times you cant even recognise ur blood brothers and sisters..
The rich will fly off while the poor will suffer..
SEEK FOR REFERANDUM NOT WAR!
Solomon Jacob
July 15, 2017 at 5:07 pm
Maybe
Fesvy Elspiritu
July 15, 2017 at 5:07 pm
YES, TO THOSE WHO DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE MEANING OF ”REFERENDUM “
Frankgentle Prince
July 15, 2017 at 5:05 pm
Do you want to cost war? ????
ALI BABA KANO
July 15, 2017 at 6:05 pm
That is complete nonsense and waist of time Nigeria UNITY is non negotiable . It’s a Democratic Government, those whose Belt they’re being marginalized are free to get together and create a party or join the existing one , if they win , then they are free to make law that suits them .
NIGERIA will remains UNITED AS ONE . WE HAVE STANDING ARMY TO KEEP THE PEACE IF NEEDS BE , PERIOD .
Tell Dey Tell Dey
July 15, 2017 at 5:03 pm
Maybe
Christopher Ochini
July 15, 2017 at 5:02 pm
Correct
Chukwunwike Nwa Amawbia Egwuonwu
July 15, 2017 at 5:02 pm
Nobody is calling for war but if going to war will settle the scores then so be it. Meanwhile had it been that the Israelis are afraid of war by now the arabians (islams) would have wiped them out.
Nkonye Chibu Ugwonu
July 15, 2017 at 4:59 pm
When a house/nation divide against its self, What else do you expect? But for me, Nigeria can Split without war. Biafra first to be freed
Obumneke Peace Iheagwu
July 15, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Referendum not war
Don Chibuzor Ezego Chibuzor X
July 15, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Fight no good
Robin China
July 15, 2017 at 4:57 pm
War is not good but anaghi ekworo mgbagbu ghara ogu.Only coward fear way and eat nsi.
Nwabueze Biafra
July 15, 2017 at 4:56 pm
If that will be the solution: let there be WAR. The cheating is too much in the Zoo called Nigeria.
Alliman Alai Abi
July 15, 2017 at 4:53 pm
No it is not .its only that a certain tribe needs to be trimmed
Paschalmary Ndubuisi Nwachukukwu
July 15, 2017 at 4:51 pm
If is the solution let it be
Ndubuisi Nnoli
July 15, 2017 at 4:48 pm
If duty calls
Bonny Bonny
July 15, 2017 at 4:48 pm
…. And that will eventually and inevitably mark the end of Nigeria.
Chris Igwe
July 15, 2017 at 4:46 pm
Let there be war these rubbish is too much
JaydeLz Ikemefuna
July 15, 2017 at 4:55 pm
you are a fool! Let there be war in ur family! You havnt feed ur self three sequal meal nw talk more of wen there is war.. If u are tired of life go and drink acid nt talking rubbish idiot
Robin China
July 15, 2017 at 5:00 pm
When a coward speak, you will know. F.F.O.
Eze Chinecherem
July 15, 2017 at 4:44 pm
Yes