Politics
BREAKING: Buhari Will Lose 2019 Presidential Election, Says Popular British Magazine
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of popular British magazine, The Economist, has predicted that the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will defeat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate in the upcoming 2019 presidential election.
EIU stated this in its latest country forecast overview on Nigeria which was made public on Tuesday.The EIU, which gave an array of reasons for its prediction, said even though it would be a close call, the opposition PDP would win the election.
It predicted slowdown in economic activities in Nigeria as politics takes centre stage.The London-based magazine, which also anticipated a depreciation of the naira, said further in its assessment that Buhari was fast shedding support from within the APC with governors and lawmakers defecting to the opposition en masse.
“Intra-party politics would be chaotic ahead of the poll and we ultimately expect the incumbent to lose power.“The 2019 elections will be a close contest between the ruling APC and the PDP. We expect the PDP presidential candidate to win, but for the next administration to flounder against the same problems as the incumbent one.“The next government is likely to be led by the PDP, the main opposition, potentially in a coalition with smaller parties, but instability will remain an insoluble challenge.
“Internally, not all ambitious politicians from the APC who have defected will be rewarded with places in the next government; or if they are, it will mean that pre-existing grandees within the PDP will have been sidelined.“Whoever ends up feeling cheated will eventually turn on the new administration, as is happening to the APC now. There is also a unifying PDP presidential candidate, with around 16 aspirants competing for the nomination.
“A weak APC before the election and a troubled government thereafter implies that Nigeria’s manifold security threats will continue to fester.“Parliamentary rifts will remain the main problem, and this applies no matter who is in charge, given competing priorities between representatives from different regions and the absence of a common ideology within parties,” it said.
Continuing, it noted that “policy reforms, particularly in the vital oil industry would be slow as a result of division in the political elite between advocates of tough, unpopular market reforms and those who refer pandering to nationalistic and pro-subsidy interest groups. The latter group was likely to remain in the ascendancy.”
According to the EIU, politicisation of economic policy would also slow reforms and at times actively decelerate economic growth.“The Central Bank of Nigeria will not act completely independently, and the overall policy agenda will be pulled in differing directions by various powerful interest groups,” the report stated.
“Fiscal expenditure will remain dominant by recurrent spending despite attempts to boost capital investments. Efforts to boost non-oil tax revenue will be constraint by weak bureaucratic capacity and low economic growth. Constrained by a crippling infrastructure deficit, economic growth will be well beneath level needed to boost job creation and increasing living standard.
“Inflation will generally remain high over the forecast period (2018-2022) amid expansionary fiscal policy and high food prices stemming from government efforts to limit import and support local producers.
“The authorities will continue to interfere in the foreign exchange market although the degree of interference should eventually lessen with higher oil prices supporting reserves and broad economic confidence slowly improving. The naira will nonetheless depreciate over 2019-21 and be broadly stable in 2022,” the report explained.
Furthermore, the EIU held the view that Nigeria’s current account would record marginal gain over the forecasts period, saying pick-up in oil prices would be offset by recovering import demand.The difficult business environment will restrict the development of non-oil exports, it added.The report further pointed out that without a collective resolve, it would prove impossible to bring permanent peace to the large parts of Nigeria hit variously by an Islamist insurgency in the north, ethno-nationalism and piracy in the main oil-producing region and secessionism in the Biafra region, as well as inter-religious tensions and disputes over land access across the centre of the country.
“It will prove hard to build a more effective security apparatus while also creating economic opportunities for local populations; poverty lies at the root of much of the instability.“Our central forecast is, however, that the 2019 elections will be completed without a widespread breakdown in stability with Nigeria’s democracy proving once again to be robust enough to endure.
“However, we expect major unrest to continue in 2020-2022 as comprehensive solutions prove too complex and costly to implement in the medium term.”It noted that given the severe risks to stability, speculation over the threat of a military coup or a civil war was likely to surface periodically.
It stated, “That these issues are part of the popular discourse highlights the seriousness of the challenges facing Nigeria, but we consider a widespread breakdown of security to be unlikely; the military is more professional and has been depoliticised since the junta stepped aside in 1999.
“Meanwhile, there is little appetite outside more extremists’ agitators for a return to civil war, given memories of how disastrous the 1967-1970 conflict was for the country.
“Nevertheless, as the country’s leadership struggles to shift Nigeria onto a more sustainable and robust pat of economic development, the risks to stability will intensify as more and more Nigerians question what they have to lose from pushing for violent change.”
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 5:45 pm
British knows that Nigeria might eventually break if buhari continues in power, so they will work against him.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 5:40 pm
Buhari has failed woefully and failed woefully in 2019
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 5:28 pm
On point sir pmb don lose
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 5:26 pm
Heaven has signed it long a go
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 5:10 pm
Pls stop calling fellow being lifeless, death doesn’t have respect for anybody either old or young. Thanks
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 4:53 pm
PMB needs no suit sayer
PMBs presence in Aso Rock is bad omen to Nigeria economy
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 4:01 pm
By the grace of God
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 3:51 pm
It is to be expected at last
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 3:43 pm
is obvious
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:25 pm
British tricks of installing Buhari again. Watch out
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:22 pm
Fake news from fake people
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:22 pm
Bullshit
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:13 pm
D zoo shall have no peace
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:02 pm
Amen
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:45 pm
Isn’t that obvious?
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:43 pm
Amen
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:29 pm
This magazine are they coming to vote in Nigeria, nawa ooo confused reporter with fake news always
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:23 pm
Is a confirmation of the obvious!!!
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:03 pm
We all know that na
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:29 pm
With ur small vote u people are minority with no electoral value only ranting on facebook
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 12:18 pm
Through war??? Abi na vote?????
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 12:15 pm
BUHARI is a failure, a power drunk lifeless president. I pity Nigeria
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 12:00 pm
Yes, this is the reason the INEC boss announced his fear of conducting election as he presumed bloodbath from the Fulani helmsmen terrorist and the Nigeria military Bokoharam in disguise.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:44 am
APC and buhari supporters will end up woefully.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:38 am
We already know
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:35 am
Amen & Amen
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:34 am
Even without any prophecy and
With the economy of this country we’ve know who will give us positive change and not this kind of change
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:33 am
He has already lost.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:15 am
amen ooo
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:14 am
We don’t need a prophet or a seer to have known this. I believe that he has started packing his own belongings from the Presidential villa. The deaf have heard, the blind have seen that APC can never win 2019 presidential election.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:10 am
Sai Baba
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:06 am
The prediction is accurate kwankwaso, saraki or atiku will lead Nigerians in the next 4yrs.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:33 pm
Shut dat trap. Are u not tired of northerners ruling u?
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 10:22 am
Is that magazine coming to vote here? Only death will stop Buhari from winning the election come 2019.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:17 am
Amen
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:19 am
Okay,, dear if it is death that will stop him from winning 2019 presidential election, then God Almighty shall take him as you said. Because from all indications there is nothing on ground that will warrant his second term. God knows that I’m not lying.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:22 am
Only death you said is buhari still alive he has gone since the person you see today is jubriel of Sudan imbecile mumu
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:44 am
are u not aware that a dry tree will keep on standing while the live tree which nobody expected to fall down, before u know it, it will fall down. My position is that Buhari will not be alive and fail to win the forth coming general election and all of u will be alive to see it with ur two naked eyes. He is not like Goodluck Jonathan who lost 2015 general election.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:09 pm
Aboki, did him still alive? The man u are seeing is a clone, lifeless president
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Do u see how u are fooling urself. The same man u are calling lifeless is still ruling u today and by the special grace of God, he will continue to rule u till 2023.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 10:20 am
The prayers of every Nigerians
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 10:10 am
only igbos will believe this prediction
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 12:45 pm
Adeoye Omotayo Soa suffering and smiling
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:22 pm
u remain our slaves
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 2:36 pm
Adeyo : south west are still slaves to buhari.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 4:11 pm
Adeoye Omotayo Soa I hardly comment on social media. My friend do u mean original Igbo man is ur slave??? U must come from another planet. A tribe that has bought 40% of your lands ur calling slave?? Jobless fool who is a ceo at non existing company….
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 10:09 am
which buhaariii, this type or the other one older.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 10:04 am
I already know that
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 10:02 am
Dat is God will in 2019,evil government must go
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:55 am
Without being told, how can a government that impacts hunger killing and poverty to the nation………..
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:53 am
They are day dreaming
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:53 am
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:52 am
What is the name of the magazine
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:01 am
Banjo Adeknle Afolabi Dont mind those Biafraud jaree, its an un-none magazine from UK. Mtcheuuu
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:46 am
Affliction shall not rise the second time.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:30 am
Every one knows that and that’s why INEC is now reminding us it has power to shift and postpone election in nigeria. We are watching.
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:55 am
Power to shift to where. PMB will win with landslide
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:27 am
Amen.We must be free from evil leader,pretender wants to destroy our Country,GOD will put all the people in APC to serious shame
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 8:58 am
British dictatorship terrorist government created this Fulani terrorist government in Nigeria today jj
Just to subdue biafrans in order to continue stealing biafra oil but it will not continue
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:38 am
Nigeria is a expired country!
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:38 am
Oh sorry COMPANY!
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 8:57 am
How long shall this Fulani terrorist government last with their agent of terror apc Buhari lifeless president of Fulani headsmen terrorist group???
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 9:44 am
Why asking silly question repeatedly?
You have problem with this government, do something about it now or wait for the election to test your view.
This is democracy, he can then be retained or rejected by the majority. End of!
Until then, be quiet and stop stiring hatred and mischief.
Put up or shut up!
Anonymous
September 12, 2018 at 11:32 am